[Dow Jones] Tocom RSS3 rubber futures settle 0.5% higher as prices rebound, having dipped into negative territory for most of the trading day. Supply concerns persist, with the Thai Meteorological Department issuing a flood warning at 0430 GMT Thursday–its 20th since last Friday, citing “torrential rain with isolated heavy falls in southern Thailand.” Despite supply fears supporting natural rubber prices, the market is clouded by macroeconomic uncertainty, which may weigh on demand. Physical traders say that buyers are cautious at high prices, and China buyers have been depleting domestic stockpiles at lower prices instead of buying actively from international markets. Traders lament the volatile trade on Tocom; “it”s very difficult; you take a long position, prices fall, so you cut losses; you take a short position, prices rise and you have to cover,” says a Singapore-based dealer. The benchmark Tocom September contract settles Y2.1 higher at Y432.2/kg, off the intraday high of Y442.7/kg.

Source: Dow Jones

[Dow Jones] Tocom rubber futures settle 3.1% higher due to severe flooding in southern Thailand and the weak yen, which dropped to a near three-week low against the dollar. Thai Rubber Association President Luckchai Kittipol says ongoing floods in southern Thailand may have already cut natural rubber production by 20,000 tons this month. A Tokyo-based broker says Tocom may rise further, with resistance at Y442.8/kg. The ongoing nuclear crisis in Japan, which has been damping overall market sentiment, may still weigh, some trade participants say. The benchmark September rubber contract settles Y12.9 higher at Y430.1/kg, off the intraday high of Y434.6/kg.

Source: Dow Jones

[Dow Jones] Tocom rubber futures settle 1.9% higher after dipping as low as 4.1% intraday. Trade is volatile on Tocom, as the market balances the impact of seasonal supply tightness against demand fears due to macroeconomic concerns. Supply concerns seem to be winning the tug-of-war Tuesday, as heavy rains persist in southern Thailand, with floods in some areas affecting transportation of goods, says a trader in the region. Thai News Agency reports Tuesday that flooding has worsened and is affecting up to 10,000 hectares of rubber and palm plantations. The benchmark September rubber contract settles Y7.9 higher at Y417.2/kg, off the intraday high and closing price of Y418/kg.

Source: Dow Jones

[Dow Jones] Tocom rubber futures settle lower after the August contract lost as much as 5.3% amid cut-loss selling by funds that took prices down to the intraday low. Losses were pared in the last half hour before closing on supply support, with major producers in the low-production season. Trade participants in Thailand say floods in the country”s major producing regions may further limit supplies. But “funds have money,” says a trader at large Thai exporter. “If they want to sell, there”s nothing you can do about it.” Trade participants in Japan are pre-occupied with the country”s nuclear woes; “I think fundamentals are quite weak, as power cuts are disrupting auto production,” says a Tokyo-based commodities brokerage analyst. Tocom August RSS3–the previous benchmark–settled Y15.8 or 3.7% lower at Y413.8/kg, off an intraday low of Y407/kg; the new benchmark September contract settled at Y409.3/kg after opening at Y436/kg.

Source: Dow Jones

Rubber in Tokyo declined, paring a weekly gain, on concern demand from China, the biggest consumer, may stall as the government continues to tighten monetary policy to rein in inflation.

The August-delivery contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange fell as much as 3.9 percent to 419.2 yen a kilo ($5,175 a metric ton) and traded at 429 yen by 12:55 p.m. local time. Futures have gained 5 percent this week, rallying to 446.9 yen on March 23, more than 33 percent higher than a four-month low reached this month, after Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the three biggest producers, agreed in principle to delay exports if prices tumbled.

“The rally might fizzle out if the biggest buyer China doesn’t step up to the plate and start buying in big volume,” Forest Hu, manager at the rubber department of PKU Founder Commodities Group Co., said by phone from Shanghai today. “From here we can see that China’s tightening looks set to continue so demand might be crimped.”

The central bank has raised interest rates three times since October to cool inflation that reached 4.9 percent in February, exceeding the government’s 4 percent annual target. It has boosted banks’ reserve requirements nine times since the start of 2010, including an increase of half a percentage point from today.

China’s consumer prices may rise about 5 percent in March from a year earlier, the China Securities Journal reported today, citing a report by the pricing department of the National Development and Reform Commission. Prices in the first quarter may have gained about 4.9 percent, the report said.

China Supply
September-delivery natural rubber in Shanghai dropped 0.9 percent to trade at 35,560 yuan ($5,422) a ton at the 11:30 a.m. local time break, paring declines of as much as 1.7 percent.

China’s Hainan province, the country’s biggest producer, will start tapping rubber trees in late March, Zhang Bei, analyst at Nanhua Futures Co., said yesterday. “So domestic supply will be on the rise as those Hainan produce is coming on stream,” Zhang said.

Rubber in Tokyo on March 15 fell to 335 yen, the lowest level since Nov. 4 as worsening Middle East tensions and slowing car sales in China raised concerns demand may decline. Losses intensified after the massive earthquake in Japan.

Source: Bloomberg