SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)–The faster-than-expected global economic recovery and resultant demand for natural rubber will likely dominate short and medium term sentiment in the rubber market, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said in its latest monthly bulletin.

The demand for natural rubber is also likely to receive a further boost after April, with buyers in the tire manufacturing industry returning to the market.

“(The) tire manufacturing industry by and large postponed purchases in March and April in expectation of comfortable availability after the wintering season,” the ANRPC said in the report dated Tuesday.

It expects global rubber supply from its members to grow 6.2% to 9.367 million metric tons in 2010.

Member countries of the ANRPC account for 94% of global natural rubber supply.

Source: Dow Jones

TOKYO, April 27 (Reuters) – Key Tokyo rubber futures fell on Tuesday as investors took profits from recent gains amid falling oil prices, but underlying sentiment remained bullish due to tight supply.
* The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for October delivery <0#JRU:>, which debuted on Monday, settled down 4.4 yen or 1.4 percent at 311.8 yen per kg. The contract rose on Monday on tight supply, a weaker yen and rising oil prices.
* But the nearby contract for May delivery bucked the trend and rose, due to the problem of delays in cargoes to deliver through TOCOM, keeping upward pressure on the spot contract.
* Tokyo rubber futures are expected to continue gaining on tight physical supply, strong demand from China and lower costs compared with spot physical prices. [ID:nSGE63M0DX]
* Mazda Motor Corp <7261.T> and Mitsubishi Motors Corp <7211.T>, Japan’s No.5 and No.6 automakers, forecast a more than trebling in annual operating profit on Tuesday, counting on new models to ride a sales recovery in the United States and Japan. [ID:nTOE63Q05U]
* China said it sold 30,000 tonnes of natural rubber from state reserves at an open bidding last week, the National Development and Reform Commission said on Tuesday. [ID:nTOE63Q01O]
* Oil fell for a second day on Tuesday to trade below $84 a barrel as forecasts for repeated increases in U.S. inventories rekindled concerns of oversupply, while Greek debt woes also weighed. [O/R]
* Short-covering on the euro stalled on Tuesday after lifting it from a one-year low, and with traders seeing limited upside scope while markets watch how Greece progresses in securing emergency aid. [USD/]
* The yen gained against the dollar, which can dampen sentiment as a higher yen deflates yen-priced TOCOM futures.
* Japan’s Nikkei share average <.N225> rose 0.4 percent. [.T]

Source: Reuters

TOKYO, April 26 (Reuters) – Tokyo rubber futures rose on Monday, supported by tight supply, a weaker yen and rising oil prices.
* The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for October delivery <0#JRU:>, which debuted on Monday, closed at 316.2 yen per kg after opening at 320.7 yen.
* The other contracts were higher from Friday’s settlement prices, with the previous benchmark contract for September delivery rising to 320.7 yen, up 5 yen from 315.7 yen on Friday.
* In the physical market, benchmark Thai RSS3 was offered at $4.00 per kg as tight supply due to unfavourable weather kept prices from falling. Earlier this month, it was offered at a record high of $4.10 per kg.
* On Friday, then spot April TOCOM contract expired at a record high price of 455.4 yen per kg, with 142 lots or 710 tonnes of deliveries. The April contract had gained sharply on strong demand amid tight physical supply and technical buybacks before its expiry. [ID:nTOE63M06N]
* A sharp fall in the number of deliveries from 380 lots delivered for the March contract last month was attributed to limited rubber cargoes available in Tokyo.
* “The April contract expired, but the problem of a lack of cargoes to deliver through TOCOM remains and keeps putting an upward pressure on the spot contract,” said a manager at a Japanese brokerage.
“The situation won’t easily change until July or so, if and when rubber prices in producing countries start falling again and shippers find TOCOM prices more attractive than at present,” the manager said.
* Oil rose above $85 a barrel on Monday, adding to gains from the previous session when strong U.S. economic statistics raised new hopes that the economic recovery was on course. [O/R]
* The euro remained wobbly against the dollar on Monday after recovering from one-year lows the previous business day when Greece sought to activate a financial aid package while Germany said it was ready to commit to a plan that would bail out the country. [USD/]
* Tokyo rubber futures are expected to continue to gain on tight physical supply, strong demand from China and lower costs compared with spot physical prices, traders said on Friday. [ID:nSGE63M0DX]
* For the spread of the front month vs the benchmark, click:

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/WT_20102304163659.jpg

* TOCOM rubber’s May contact is trending upwards toward a bullish target of 447 yen per kg over the next month, which is the 461.8 percent Fibonacci projection level. [ID:nSGE63M0CY]
* In Shanghai, rubber inventories have been falling since late January, according to the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s weekly data. The exchange said on Friday deliverable rubber inventories in warehouses it monitors fell 13 percent from one week earlier. [ID:nTST000113]

Source: Reuters

[Dow Jones] Physical prices of Thai USS3 rubber rise to THB113.88-THB117.52/kg vs THB113.18-THB116.14/kg yesterday; more arrivals today, but supplies still tight overall, traders say. Outside central markets, factories paying around THB117/kg. Tapping started recently, but buyers expect USS3 supplies to ease in coming weeks as most of initial poor-quality latex produced to be used for lower grades; unusually dry weather fueling uncertainty over timing, volume of USS3 production. Total quantity sold in three central markets of Thailand estimated at 24.2 tons versus 5.3 tons yesterday: 2.2 tons in Hat Yai, 10 tons in Surat Thani, 12 tons in Chandee.

Source: Dow Jones

April 23 (Bloomberg) — Rubber declined for a second day as tight supply in Thailand, the largest exporter, drove the nearby contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange to a record high.

September-delivery rubber, the most-active contract, dropped as much as 1 percent to 315.1 yen per kilogram ($3,380 a metric ton). The April-delivery contract, which expires today, jumped as much as 4.9 percent to 472 yen, a record price for a nearby contract, before settling at 455.4 yen.

“A seasonal decrease in supply from Thailand gives support to futures,” Hisaaki Tasaka, an analyst at Tokyo-based commodity broker ACE Koeki Co., said today. “The market may remain buoyant until Thai shipments start picking up as early as June,” he said.

September-delivery rubber tumbled 5.5 percent this week, the biggest decline since the week ended Dec. 11. The contract dropped 0.8 percent to settle at 315.7 yen.

“The price gap between April-delivery futures contract and those of later months was more than 100 yen, reflecting limited supply,” Chaiwat Muenmee, an analyst at DS Futures Co. said by phone from Bangkok.

Speculators with short positions in April futures have to buy back the contract today or the raw material will be delivered.

Crude oil dropped as much as 0.4 percent to $83.37 a barrel before trading at $83.68.

Exchange Probe

The price of the April contract surged 37 percent this month. The Tokyo exchange checked its members’ positions in rubber futures after volatility jumped this week, Kazunari Hayakawa, executive managing officer for the exchange, said in an interview yesterday.

“The investigation created negative sentiment in the market,” DS Futures’ Chaiwat said.

Cash prices in Thailand extended gains because there are limited supplies in the market, the Rubber Institute of Thailand said on its Web site today.

The auctioned price of Thai RSS-3 grade rubber gained 1.1 percent to 119.55 baht ($3.70) a kilogram, after reaching a record of 122.89 baht on April 21. The free-on-board price, which excludes freight and insurance, of Thai RSS-3 grade rubber for May-delivery rose to a record 128.55 baht per kilogram, the institute said.

Thailand is in the wintering season from February to April, when rubber trees shed their leaves and latex output slows, diminishing supplies.

September-delivery rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed little changed at 24,315 yuan ($3,561) a ton.

Source: Bloomberg