After a lackluster trading session NMCE rubber futures end with a positive sign. However most of the Asian rubber markets show some weakness on Thursday as Japans auto output posted a decline of 21.6 percent on year in September, making the 12th straight month fall. In Tokyo commodity exchange April contract settles 3.6 yen lower at 226.1 yen per kg.

According to latest report from International Rubber Study Group, Global rubber supply may jump 30 percent by 2015 and may increase by 50 percent by 2020, due to dramatic increase in total new planting. In 2008 total new planting is estimated to have reached around six times the level of 2000.

According to Rubber Board’s revised estimate, consumption may move up 6.85% on year from 872,000 tn in 2008-09 (Apr-Mar), while overall output is likely to slip by 3% from 865,000 tonne. According to reports from General Global natural rubber output in the January- August period is expected to fall 8.5% from a year ago to 3.66 million metric tons, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said Friday. However, the estimate doesn’t include production in Indonesia, which fell an estimated 6.3% during the January-July period to 1.59 million tons. In Indonesia, the government collates data with a lag.

According to the latest report from Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, the rate of decline in natural rubber supply was accelerating worldwide due to lower output in all major growing regions. Natural rubber output in the January-August period in Thailand, the world’s largest producer, was 1.9 million tons, 8.3% lower from a year ago. In Malaysia, production in the January-September period was 24% lower, while in India it was down 11%. The only major country which has reported gains in output is China, where output grew an estimated 28% in the first nine months of 2009.

Lower output and weak demand during the first half of 2009 also affected natural rubber exports. Thailand’s exports in the January-August period were 8.7% lower, while Malaysia’s January-September exports were down 34%. India’s exports have been negligible while imports have been rising due to a rise in local demand from tire makers. India imported 20,000 tons of natural rubber in September, up from 13,000 tons a year earlier.

NMCE rubber moved in the range of Rs11399-11260 last traded at Rs11370 (11329) Open interest increased by 37 to 1607. Rubber stocks at NMCE accredited warehouses increased by 69 to 516 Mt.

INTRADAY OUTLOOK

NMCE Rubber December futures support lies at 11287 and 11204. Resistance is at 11426 and 11482.

Source:  commodityonline.com

Singapore – Tocom RSS3 rubber futures settle lower on profit taking, spillover weakness from lower crude oil, traders say. “After several days of gains, investors are liquidating positions,” says Tokyo-based trader; adds many institutional funds are yet to roll over their March positions to April. As crude oil has failed to stay above $80/bbl, rubber prices have also eased, says analyst in Singapore. Most traders expect immediate support at Y225/kg. Benchmark Tocom April contract settles Y3.6 lower at Y226.1/kg after reaching intraday low of Y223.8/kg.

Source: moneycontrol.com

[Dow Jones] Natural rubber futures on SHFE settle lower, in line with declines in metals, Chinese equity markets, says Shanghai Jiuheng Futures analyst Zhang Fangfang; adds rubber contracts will likely remain in recent trading range on lack of fresh meaningful cues, despite solid spot prices, “general near-term price movement will be consolidating unless some real macroeconomic news pops up.” Tips prices to move within CNY19,000-CNY20,000/ton range on chart-based cues. Benchmark January contract settles down CNY265, or 1.4%, at CNY19,030/ton. (LIY)

Source: Dow Jones

[Dow Jones] Tocom RSS3 rubber futures settle lower on profit-taking, traders say. “Due to lack of fresh cues, some investors consider it prudent to liquidate positions,” says Tokyo-based trader. Earlier, Y230/kg was support, now it seems to have turned into resistance, says exporter in Singapore. Traders expect prices to hover around Y230/kg near term. Benchmark Tocom April contract settles Y1.1 lower at Y229.7/kg. (SAM)

Source: Dow Jones

TOKYO, Oct 28 (Reuters) – Key Tokyo rubber futures fell 0.5 percent on Wednesday, with sentiment weighed down as investors took profits from the market’s recent rally to one-year highs in the absence of major events.
* But the Tokyo market is expected to resume its upturn after a technical correction given unusually low rubber inventory levels in Japan, traders said.
* The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for April delivery <0#JRU:>, which debuted on Tuesday, closed at 229.7 yen, down 1.1 yen from the previous day.
* The then benchmark March contract hit a high of 235.7 yen on Oct. 23, the highest for any benchmark since October 2008, when technical buying related to Monday’s expiry of the October contract helped push up prices.
* “It’s in a correction mode for now. But the market is basically in an uptrend because poor inventory currently means buying for physical delivery will emerge in any falls toward an expiry (of the nearby contract),” said a manager at a Japanese commodity brokerage.”
* Japan’s crude rubber inventories totalled 4,195 tonnes as of Oct. 20, down 16.4 percent from 10 days earlier and down 10.2 percent from a year earlier, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed.
* Oil edged down towards $79 a barrel on Wednesday, giving up some of the previous day’s 1.1 percent gain on weaker Asian equities and a steady dollar, but losses were limited after industry data showed a surprise large drawdown in U.S. crude inventories. [O/R]
* Japan’s Honda Motor Co <7267.T> exuded optimism while Germany’s Daimler AG spread gloom about the outlook for car markets on Tuesday, highlighting the patchy nature of any post-crisis rebound. [ID:nLR387222]
* Japan’s largest automaker Toyota Motor Corp <7203.T> said on Wednesday its global output fell 2.5 percent in September from a year earlier. [ID:nT122680]
* But consistent demand from China, the biggest rubber consumer, means supply will remain tight in producing countries. Growing signs of El Nino were noted as another factor supporting rubber prices.
* Ocean surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have warmed further and now exceed levels typical of an El Nino event by their greatest margin of the year, Australia’s weather bureau said on Wednesday. [ID:nSYDU00895]
* In the currency market, the yen rose across the board on Wednesday as investors trimmed stretched risk positions in higher-yielding currencies with stocks falling following weaker than expected U.S. data. [USD/]

Source: Reuters