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BANGKOK, Nov 21 (Reuters) – Thailand’s annual export growth fell sharply in October to its slowest pace in six years as consumers reined in spending due to a worsening global economy.
Exports rose 5.2 percent to $15.27 billion in October from the same month in 2007 after a 19.4 percent rise in September, and compared to 4.7 percent in July 2002, the Commerce Ministry said.
“We had expected a slowdown in export growth, but not as low as 5 percent,” said Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong, an economist at Kasikorn Research who had forecast 8-10 percent growth.
“It will be more terrible in the first quarter of next year because we might see a contraction in growth as a result of the global economic slowdown,” she said.
Kasikorn’s forecast for 2009 was for between 3 percent growth and a contraction of 2 percent.
Rachen Pojanasunthorn, the ministry’s director general of export promotion, said the slower growth in October was partly due to a high base last year, when exports of food and agricultural products surged.
Thailand is the world’s biggest exporter of rice, tapioca and natural rubber, and also a major provider of autos, electronics and industrial products.
But demand from key markets in the United States, Europe and some Asian countries is falling as the global financial crisis batters their economies.
On Thursday, U.S. car giant General Motors Corp announced a two-month shutdown at its Thai plant, and Toyota Motor Corp <7203.T> said it planned production cuts in Thailand.
A Federation of Thai Industries survey of 200 large factories in the central province of Ayutthaya found 30 were considering cutting production or jobs, the Bangkok Post reported.
Another 79 firms had frozen their staff levels, it said.
“This is just the first chapter of a global recession. The real impact will be much clearer next January,” FTI vice chairman Tanit Sorat told the paper.
However, Rachen said rising imports of capital goods and raw materials was good news for export growth in 2009.
Imports rose 21.7 percent to $15.82 billion in October, compared to September’s 39.4 percent rise to $15.74 billion. The trade account had a deficit of $558 million in October after a $133 million surplus in August.
In the first 10 months of this year, exports rose 21.7 percent to $151.2 billion while imports rose 34.2 percent to $154.5 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $3.30 billion.
($1=35.20 Baht)
Source: Reuters